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13 Mar 2013

Oil trades higher after OPEC report

Oil futures are trading to the upside during Wednesday’s Asian session after getting a lift from an unchanged global demand outlook report from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries.
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for April delivery rose 0.18% to USD92.71 per barrel in Asian trading Wednesday. Crude settled up 0.86% at USD92.85 a barrel on Tuesday in the U.S.

On Tuesday, OPEC said its 2013 demand forecast, calling for an increase of 800,000 barrels per day, is unchanged. However, the 12-nation cartel that accounts for 40% of global oil output, said it expects non-OPEC supply of 1 million barrels per day will cut into its market share.

Also on Tuesday, the U.S. Energy Information Administration slightly lowered its 2013 forecast for Brent crude to USD108 per barrel from USD109.

Gold trades slightly higher on ECB rumors

Gold futures rose are trading modestly higher in the early part of Wednesday’s Asian session as traders speculate the European Central Bank might have room to engage in monetary easing.

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for April delivery rose 0.04% to USD1,592.30 per troy ounce in Asian trading Wednesday after gaining 0.86% to settle at USD1,591.60 a troy ounce in U.S. trading on Tuesday.

Gold futures were likely to test support USD1,574.60 a troy ounce, Monday's low, and resistance at USD1,1619.40, the high from February 26.

On Tuesday, ECB council member Jens Weidmann said inflationary pressures across the euro zone remain light. Those comments prompted traders to speculate the ECB has some room to weaken the euro through monetary easing. At the conclusion of its policy meeting last week, the ECB left interest rates unchanged at 0.75% while announcing no new monetary easing initiatives.

Due in part to a plummeting Japanese yen, some European policymakers are pressuring the ECB to taken action to weaken the euro. Among the most vocal critics of the weaker yen have been Germany and France, the euro zone’s two largest economies.

Still, there are signs gold investors remain pensive. Holdings of bullion at the SPDR Gold Shares, the world’s largest exchange traded fund backed by by physical gold, resided at 1,236.729 tons as of Monday, the lowest level since late 2011.

On the other hand, physical demand in Asia is seen as steady, helped by comments made by Bank of Japan deputy governor nominee Kikuo Iwata. On Tuesday, Iwata said the central bank should engage in further aggressive easing initiatives.

Elsewhere, Comex silver for May delivery rose 0.05% to USD29.185 per ounce while copper for May delivery added 0.11% to USD3.555 per ounce.

Gold Technical Analysis – March 13th – XAUUSD

  • Gold has rallied today, to the 61.8% Fibonacci retrace area of the last leg lower from $1619.78 – $1561.44. 

  • This came after a breakout of the recent range consolidation highs around the $1585 area.  
  • XAUUSD has found interim resistance at this 61.8% Fibonacci level, which is also aligned with the 15/2/13 daily low.  Any sustained upside brings the following technical areas of interest:
    • The $1600 handle.
    • 27/2/13 daily high around the $1614 area,
    • The $1618 – $1620 zone, this marks the recent range highs from 18/2/13 and 26/2/13
    • $1625 is the previous key support area, aligned with a 50% retrace, and marks a potential resistance area on any sustained move higher.
  • Any move lower brings the following technical areas as a focus:
    • $1585 marks recent range highs, now viewed as potential near term support.
    • $1554 is the recent swing low, a move under this area would be a constructive technical development and would bring the $1530 area as a potential focus.
  • Further to the above, the D1 XAUUSD chart below highlights multiple Fibonacci confluence areas that we will be monitoring going forward.

Gold outlook, Gold technical report, XAUUSD analysis 13/3/13

 COURTESY : forex-fx-4x

Natural Gas rally wanes as forecasts call for East Coast warming trend

                       Natural gas futures slid in choppy trading on Tuesday, as a recent rally began to wane after weather forecasts pointed to a warming trend settling over the heavily populated central and eastern swathes of the U.S.

Warmer weather cuts into demand for heating in the nation's households and businesses and sends natural gas prices falling.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, natural gas futures for delivery in April traded at USD3.635 per million British thermal units, down 0.40%.

The commodity hit a session low of USD3.620 and a high of USD3.675.
Weather services predicted normal temperatures to settle into the East Coast U.S. through the end of March, with some calling for warmer-than-normal thermometer readings.

The reports began to chip away at a rally that sent natural gas gaining due to unseasonably cold weather patterns that have gripped the country for much of February and March.


ALUMINIUM 106.70 107.25 108.30 105.10 104.05 103.50
COPPER 431.05 433.80 437.40 424.70 421.10 418.35
CRUDEOIL 5070 5105 5149 4991 4947 4912
GOLD 29535 29626 29732 29338 29232 29141
LEAD 121.25 122.00 123.25 119.25 118.00 117.25
NATURALGAS 199.40 201.40 202.90 195.90 194.40 192.40
NICKEL 928.50 933.40 942.00 915.00 906.40 901.50
SILVER 55234 55525 55851 54617 54291 54000
ZINC 107.80 108.65 109.70 105.90 104.85 104.00
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