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18 Apr 2013

Silver futures retrace losses but downside risks remain

Mcx Silver Tips

               Silver futures shook off earlier weakness to trade modestly higher during European morning hours on Thursday, but the market remained vulnerable to further losses as investors remained hesitant to enter the market.

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, silver futures for May delivery traded at USD23.30 a troy ounce during European morning trade, little changed on the day.

Comex silver prices fell by as much as 3% earlier in the session to hit a daily low of USD22.44 a troy ounce. Prices fell to USD22.01 a troy ounce on Tuesday, the weakest level since October 5, 2010.

Silver prices were likely to find support at USD22.03 a troy ounce, the previous session’s low and near-term resistance at USD23.74, Wednesday’s high.

Silver futures have lost nearly 16%, or almost USD4.30 per ounce, since last Friday, as investors exited the market after prices broke below key support levels. 

Prices of the silver metal are down nearly 53% since hitting an all-time high of USD49.81 an ounce in April 2011.

Silver has been on the decline given “weak industrial demand and mixed investor interest,” analysts at Barclays wrote in a research note last week.

Market analysts have warned that a drop below the USD22.00-level can lead to further losses in the near-term.

Elsewhere on the Comex, gold for June delivery rose 0.2% to trade at USD1,385.45 a troy ounce, while copper for May delivery dropped 1.7% to trade at USD3.134 a pound.

Courtesy :

Crude oil futures hold near 4-month low on global growth fears

mcx energy tips

                       Crude oil futures swung between gains and losses during European morning hours on Thursday, holding near the lowest level in four months as investors remained concerned over the global economic outlook and its impact on future oil demand.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light sweet crude futures for delivery in June traded at USD87.19 a barrel during European morning trade, up 0.2% on the day.

New York-traded oil prices fell by as much as 1.2% earlier in the session to hit a daily low of USD85.92 a barrel, the weakest level since December 13.

Concerns over the global economic outlook intensified earlier in the week after the International Monetary Fund cut its 2013 forecast for global growth to 3.3%, down from its January projection of 3.5%. 

The growth projection for China was trimmed to 8% from 8.2%, while the growth outlook for the U.S. was lowered to 1.9% from 2%.

The U.S. and China are the world’s two largest oil consuming nations.

Meanwhile, concerns over the global energy demand outlook were underlined after both the International Energy Agency and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries cut their demand estimates for 2013 last week.

Elsewhere, on the ICE Futures Exchange, Brent oil futures for June delivery was up 0.3% to trade at USD98.00 a barrel, with the spread between the Brent and crude contracts standing at USD10.81 a barrel, the smallest gap since January 2012.

London-traded Brent futures fell to a session low of USD96.76 a barrel earlier in the day, the weakest level since July 2.

The European benchmark has been under heavy selling pressure in recent sessions, amid growing concerns over the euro zone’s economic outlook. 

The IMF said earlier in the week that the euro zone remains the weakest part of the global economy. The 17 countries using the euro accounted for about 12% of world demand last year.

Copper Below $7,000 for First Time in 18 Months as Metals Slide

mcx base metals tips

             Copper in London fell below $7,000 for the first time in almost 18 months as data from Europe to China, the biggest user, raised concern that demand is faltering. Aluminum, nickel, zinc, tin and lead also retreated.
Copper for delivery in three months on the London Metal Exchange plunged as much as 4 percent to $6,800 a metric ton, the lowest level since October 2011, and was at $6,840.25 at 9:38 a.m. in Shanghai. Metal for delivery in August was at 50,530 yuan ($8,175) a ton, declining by a daily limit, on the Shanghai Futures Exchange. The July futures contract on the Comex dropped 3.1 percent to $3.1035 per pound.
European car sales are sliding to a 20-year low as demand plunged last month in Germany. TheFederal Reserve said yesterday in its Beige Book business survey the U.S. economic expansion remained “moderate.” China’s first-quarter gross domestic product growth and fixed-asset investments, as well as March industrial production trailed economists’ forecasts.
“After breaching key technical levels, copper is in a downward trajectory,” Xu Liping, an analyst at HNA Topwin Futures Co., said by phone from Shanghai.
Courtesy : Bloomberg

Oil falls despite Beige Book report

                  Crude Oil futures traded lower in the early part of Thursday’s Asian despite some decent comments in the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book report published Wednesday. 

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for June delivery dropped 0.53% to USD86.50 per barrel in Asian trading Thursday after sliding 2.24% to USD87.04 a barrel on Wednesday in the U.S. 

Oil and other riskier assets such as U.S. stocks plunged after the International Monetary Fund pared its outlook for global economic growth this year. 

On Wednesday, the IMF trimmed its 2013 world economic growth forecast to 3.3%, down from a January projection of 3.5%, while the multilateral lending institution's 2014 growth forecast fell to 4.0% from 4.1%. 

Later Wednesday, the Fed’s Beige Book report, which surveys the central bank’s 12 regional districts, indicated those regions have seen modest economic improvement since late February. 

"Labor market conditions remained unchanged or improved slightly, and reports of hiring were more widespread in the manufacturing, residential construction, information technology and professional services sectors," said the Fed in the report. 

Retail spending increased in most districts while automotive and housing sales remain bright spots for the U.S. economy, the world’s largest. The U.S. is also the world’s largest oil-consuming nation. 

Elsewhere, Royal Dutch Shell, Europe’s largest oil company, said it closed a major pipeline in the oil-rich Niger Delta of Nigeria to fix areas where rebels are stealing oil. Shell closed the Nembe Creek Trunkline, leading to lost production of 150,000 barrels per day until the situation is fixed. 

Nigeria is Africa’s largest oil-producing nation and a member of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. 

Meanwhile, Brent crude for June delivery fell 0.33% to USD97.21 per barrel on the ICE Futures Exchange.

Courtesy :

Gold continues to slide as Goldman sees more ETF selling

             Gold futures traded lower in the early part of Thursday’s Asian session following another down day Wednesday in the U.S. 

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for June delivery fell 0.52% to USD1,375.55 per troy ounce in Asia trading Thursday after settling down 0.81% at USD1,376.15 a troy ounce in U.S. trading on Wednesday. 

Gold futures were likely to test support USD1,322.25 a troy ounce, Tuesday's low, and resistance at USD1,494.95, Monday's high. 

The International Monetary Fund’s reduced outlook for 2013 global growth weighed on precious metals Wednesday. On Wednesday, the IMF trimmed its 2013 world economic growth forecast to 3.3%, down from a January projection of 3.5%, while the multilateral lending institution's 2014 growth forecast fell to 4.0% from 4.1%. 

Those headlines sent U.S. stocks tumbling and investors into safe-havens such as the U.S. dollar. Adding to gold’s woes were comments from Goldman Sachs. The venerable Wall Street bank, which recently told clients to short the yellow metal, said "there is the potential for a further sell-off in ETF holdings given that a significant portion of the holdings 8 moz or 11% of the existing holdings, were purchased at levels at or above current gold prices." 

Goldman made the comments in a research note published Wednesday. Gold ETFs such as the SPDR Gold Shares are among the largest holders of gold in the world. In fact, the SPDR Gold Shares owns more gold than many global central banks. 

"Finally, to put the size of the ETF holdings into context: at its peak of 84.6 moz, the ETF’s aggregate holdings were the third-largest in the world, ranking behind only the US and German central banks. The 8.5 moz liquidated from ETFs since the start of the year represent almost 10% of annual gold mine supply, which takes the aggregate ETF holdings down to a number four ranking," Goldman said in the note. 

Elsewhere, Comex silver for May delivery fell 0.32% to USD23.233 per ounce while copper for May delivery dropped 0.51% to USD3.162 per ounce.

Courtesy :

Natural Gas gains as forecasts point to fresh blast of cold weather

                             Natural gas futures were up in afternoon trading on Wednesday after weather forecasts pointed to below-normal temperatures settling in for portions of the heavily populated Midwest region of the U.S.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, natural gas futures for delivery in May traded at USD4.205 per million British thermal units, up 1.08%.

The commodity hit a session low of USD4.147 and a high of USD4.244.

Reports that the Commodity Weather Group LLC in Bethesda, Maryland, predicted colder-than-normal temperatures in the central U.S. through late April sent price rising earlier.

Market participants also kept an eye towards Thursday's official U.S. supply data.

Early injection estimates for this week’s storage data range from 16 billion cubic feet to 55 billion cubic feet. 

Inventories rose by 21 billion cubic feet in the same week a year earlier, while the five-year average change for the week marks a rise of 39 billion cubic feet.

Typically this time of year, stockpiles begin to climb as milder spring temperatures curb demand for natural gas, though prices may rise by later spring, when homes and businesses crank up air conditioning units. 

Total U.S. natural gas storage stood at 1.673 trillion cubic feet as of last week, 32.5% lower than last year at this time and 3.8% below the five-year average for this time of year. 

Nymex gas prices have shot up almost 30% since mid-February thanks to below-normal temperatures gripping much of the eastern half of the U.S.

Natural gas futures are very sensitive to weather reports in the U.S. winter.

About half of U.S. households use gas for heating purposes, according to Energy Department data.

Elsewhere on the NYMEX, light sweet crude oil futures for delivery in June were down 2.14% and trading at USD87.12 a barrel, while heating oil futures for May delivery were down 2.24% at USD2.7436 per gallon.