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17 Sep 2013

Gold may get support on US debt ceiling, Middle East issue: ETFS


      LONDON (Bullion Street): Gold under pressure as Syria military attack averted and investors focus on possible Fed tapering. Precious metals declined last week as concerns about an imminent attack on Syria by the US abated and investors continued to focus on the possible announcement of a reduction in Fed bond buying this week, according to a weekly review by ETF Securities Ltd (ETFS).

Palladium was the only precious metal to hold up, as improving global economic conditions and continued strong auto sales lend support. In our view, once the market has put FOMC tapering clarification in the rear view mirror, the focus will likely focus on other issues. Some of these issues include the need to raise the US debt ceiling in the next month or so or face government shut-down, continued upheaval in the Middle East and the Fed’s need to keep bond yield increases in check given its large debt servicing burden. All of these factors should be gold price supportive. On top of these factors, China and central bank physical gold demand remains robust and gold jewellery recycling has dropped sharply, tightening the physical supply-demand balance (as reflected in low to negative gold forward rates). These factors should help to keep a floor on the gold price.

And any sign of slower growth in the US or of Fed dovishness in the coming months has the potential to push the gold price higher. A key potential beneficiary of a stable gold price and rising industrial growth is silver. Platinum and palladium back in focus as industrial cycle turn up. Palladium bucked the bearish precious metals trend, showing a modest gain last week. The fundamentals of palladium remain positive in our view with rising vehicle sales in the US and China combined with constrained supply expected to keep the metal in supply deficit this year and next. ETFS report said.

Among the precious metals, palladium has the highest industrial demand exposure at nearly 80%, and thus stands in a particularly strong position to benefit as the global economy improves. Catalytic converters are the primary source of demand, notably for gasoline engines.
Emerging market demand, coupled with tightening emission regulations are expected to help sustain an excess of demand over supply through 2014 (see chart on the following page). Platinum has also gained some favor recently due to the recovery in Europe. Platinum tends to be used more in diesel vehicles and Europe is the world’s largest market for diesel passenger cars.

Platinum and palladium are among the few commodities in supply deficit. Palladium is the same price as November 2010, yet cumulative 12-month vehicle sales have increased about 17% since then. Platinum is the same price as November 2007,despite the fact that cumulative vehicle sales have increased about 30% (see chart below). Absent a shift lower in global vehicle sales, the outlook for platinum and palladium appears quite favourable in our view, ETFS report added.

Key events to watch this week
The FOMC statement on the 18th and potential reduction in the bond buying program will likely be the focus this week. Renewed tensions in Syria would raise attention as may the approaching US budget debate. Data will likely take a back seat, with industrial production and CPI in the US prominent. In the EU, CPI and vehicle registrations should be highlights. - Bullionstreet.com

Monex Precious Metals Review: Gold support $1308, Silver resistance $22.19



     NEW YORK: Monex spot gold prices opened the week at $1,387 . . . traded as high as $1,390 on Monday and as low as $1,308 on Friday . . . and the Monex AM settlement price on Friday was $1,309, down $78 for the week.  Gold support is now anticipated at $1,308, then $1,278, and then $1,249 . . . with resistance anticipated at $1,350, then $1,386, and then $1,420.
Silver
Monex spot silver prices opened the week at $23.58 . . . traded as high as $23.81 on Monday and as low as $21.65 on Friday . . . and the Monex AM settlement price on Friday was $21.74, down $1.84 for the week.  Silver support is now anticipated at $21.42, then $20.86, and then $19.58 . . . and resistance anticipated at $22.19, then $23.05, and then $24.78.

Platinum
Monex spot platinum prices opened the week at $1,491 . . . traded as high as $1,491 on Monday and as low as $1,433 on Friday . . . and the Monex AM settlement price on Friday was $1,441, down $50 for the week.  Platinum support is now anticipated at $1,427, then $1,396, and then $1,328 . . . and resistance anticipated at $1,458, then $1,497, and then $1,544.

Palladium
Monex spot palladium prices opened the week at $694 . . . traded as high as $702 on Wednesday and as low as $682 on Monday . . . and the Monex AM settlement price on Friday was $699, up $5 for the week.  Palladium support is now anticipated at $685, then $662, and then $634 . . . and resistance anticipated at $702, then $718, and then $738. - www.monex.com

Crude Oil lower after U.S., Russia reach Syria deal


                   Crude Oil futures traded lower in the early part of Tuesday’s Asian session after the U.S. and Russia agreed over the weekend on terms to dismantle Syria's chemical weapons cache. 

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for October delivery fell 0.65% to USD105.90 per barrel in Asian trading Tuesday. The October contract settled down 1.50% at USD106.59 per barrel on Monday. 

The U.S. and Russia Syria one week to disclose its chemical weapons stockpiles, which will go undergo inspections by November. Russia intervened to broker a diplomatic solution after it became apparent the U.S. would entertain thoughts of a military strike against Syria for using chemical weapons against its own citizens. 

Tepid economic data out of the U.S., the world’s largest oil consumer, also pressured crude. In U.S. economic news out Monday, a report from the Federal Reserve today showed U.S. industrial production rose 0.4% last month after a flat reading in July. The August increase was the biggest in six months. Housing and automobile production paced the gains. 

The New York Federal Reserve’s Empire State Manufacturing survey fell to 6.29 from 8.24 in August. Economists expected a reading of 9.20. The new orders index rose to 2.35 from 0.27 while shipments soared to 16.43, the highest level in more than a year, from 1.47. Readings above zero indicate expansion. 

Elsewhere, Libyra restarted some production at the El Feel and Sharara fields after talks between the government and striking workers. Libya’s oil production has plunged to a mere 250,000 barrels per day amid geopolitical and labor strife. The country was producing more than five times that in early 2011. Libya, an OPEC member, is home to Africa’s largest oil reserves. 

Meanwhile, Brent futures for October delivery inched down 0.05% to USD109.60 per barrel on the ICE Futures Exchange. - investing.com