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24 Sep 2013

Crude Oil falls as output increases in Libya, Texas

              Crude Oil futures traded slightly lower during Tuesday’s Asian session as some of Libya’s previously lost production came back online and on news of increased output at the Eagle Ford Shale in South Texas. 

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for November delivery fell 0.27% to USD103.31 per barrel in Asian trading Tuesday. The November contract settled lower by 1.11% at USD103.59 per barrel on Monday. 

Oil has declined in sharply in recent weeks has tensions in Syria have ebbed. In another sign a more docile near-term environment in the usually volatile Middle East, Iran has reportedly freed 80 political prisoners before President Hassan Rohani’s upcoming trip to the United Nations. Iran is the third-largest OPEC producer. 

Over the weekend, it was reported that Libyan output is on the rise after protesters reopened access to facilities late last week sent oil prices falling on Monday. Libyan production is expected to return to about 700,000 barrels per day in the coming weeks, well above recent levels of 243,000 barrels. 

Still, at 700,000 barrels per day, Libya’s oil output is roughly half what it was in early 2011 before the Arab Spring protests swept the Middle East. OPEC member Libya is home to Africa’s largest oil reserves. 

Elsewhere, the Texas Railroad Commission said the fields that comprise the Eagle Ford Shale are producing a combined 569,191 barrels per day, a 36% increase from last year. May output was revised to 656,853 barrels a day from the preliminary report of 617,884, according to Bloomberg. Eagle Ford is one of the largest oilfields in the U.S. 

Meanwhile, Brent crude futures for November delivery inched down 0.02% to USD107.98 per barrel on the ICE Futures Exchange. -

Gold falls again on tapering concerns

                Gold futures traded modestly lower in the early part of Tuesday’s Asian session as tapering concerns continue to loom large. 

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for December delivery inched down 0.04% to USD1,326.50 per troy ounce in Asian trading Tuesday. The December contract settled lower by 0.41% at USD1,327.00 per ounce on Monday. 

Gold futures were likely to find support at USD1,291.70 a troy ounce, Wednesday's low, and resistance at USD1,375.10, Thursday's high.

While gold rallied last Thursday on news that the Federal Reserve will not taper its USD85 billion-a-month in bond purchases, the yellow metal and other precious metals have given up all of those gains and then some. 

Ultra-loose monetary policies that include asset purchases drive down interest rates to spur recovery, weakening the dollar in the process and making gold an attractive hedge. 

Some members of the Fed are sending mixed messages regarding tapering, adding an element of confusion to financial markets. On Friday, however, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said that the U.S. central bank could taper its stimulus program during its October meeting, which sparked a round of profit-taking that sent gold prices falling.

However, on Monday, Federal Reserve Bank of New York President William Dudley said the stimulus program would stay in place until data show that recovery will be sustained. 

"Our decisions on how to adjust our policy tools—for example, the pace of asset purchases and forward guidance with respect to the level of short-term rates—must be rooted in the ongoing flow of information that informs our judgments about the prospects for a sustainable recovery," said Dudley. 

Uncertainty appears to be what is hampering gold at the moment, though may market participants are convinced tapering will happen before year-end with some expecting it will occur next month. 

Elsewhere, Comex silver for December delivery fell 0.18% to USD21.818 while copper for December delivery dropped 0.42% to USD3.284.  -