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3 Oct 2013

The FOMC May Need To Add Stimulus To Offset Shutdown


      For weeks traders have talked “tapering”. They were almost sure it would have begun last month, now they were expecting big news this month. Others were saying by the end of the year. But everyone was sure tapering would begin soon. That was until the impossible happened. The US government has shut down. Most speculators figured US politicians were playing theatrics and would come up with a last minute agreement as they do all the time but this time they seem to have out maneuvered themselves. Putting themselves in a bind. The noose is now tightening as the budget crisis becomes ensnared with the debt ceiling negotiations.
The Federal Reserve is not funded by the budget and will therefore remain operational, which means that we will continue to hear from Fed speakers. Yesterday, traders were shaken when a Fed member suggested that the FOMC might need to add additional stimulus to help the government recover from the economic damage caused by the shutdown.  Caught in the middle of this confusion are precious metals. Gold and silver have been trading all over the place. Gold is trading at 1312.00 down by $8.70 this morning. Gold climbed over the 1320 level yesterday as traders took advantage of the steep decline on Monday and the weak US dollar to buy up the commodity.

The most actively traded contract, for December delivery, on Wednesday settled up $34.60, or 2.7 per cent, at $1,320.70. The US federal government closure moved into a second day as Democrats and Republicans remained deadlocked over a budget for the fiscal year, which started on October 1. Some investors are now worried that the shutdown will last longer than expected, leading to terser negotiations over the US debt ceiling in mid-October. Gold traded near two-month lows on Wednesday as the first US government shutdown in 17 years kept investors on edge, stoking worries of further liquidation after a sharp 3 percent drop in the previous session. Bullion posted its biggest daily percentage drop in more than two weeks on Tuesday following a massive Comex sell order and technical selling once prices fell below $1,300 an ounce. For the year, gold has shed about 23 percent of its value largely on fears over a US stimulus cutback. Gold’s safe-haven appeal is usually burnished by uncertain economy and geopolitical tensions. Prolonged politicking around the US budget had initially prompted hopes that gold prices could rise, but safe-haven bids failed to emerge.
Taking cues from rise in gold prices along with upside in base metals group, silver prices gained around 2.8 percent yesterday. Further, weakness in the DX acted as a positive factor. Silver is trading at 21.725 down by 172 points this morning. Copper gained 1.3 percent in the last trade due to positive economic outlook from Eurozone, which could lead to increased demand for the red metal. Decline in inventories by 0.3 percent to 531,875 tonnes along with weakness in the DX also supported gains. However, weak market sentiments capped sharp gains in the prices. The metal is trading at 3.311 flat this morning. -

Crude Oil dips in Asia following solid U.S. showing

             Crude Oil futures traded lower during Thursday’s Asian session on some profit-taking following a stellar performance during Wednesday’s U.S. session that saw crude soar on news of a potential drop in supply. Energy company TransCanada revealed that it would not be able to finish its work on a part of the Keystone pipeline this October. 

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for November delivery fell 0.34% to USD103.75 per barrel in Asian trading Thursday. The November contract settle higher by 2.02% at USD104.10 per barrel on Wednesday. 

The southern leg of the Keystone pipeline might not see completion, as TransCanada has announced. This leg was supposed to connect Oklahoma to the refineries along the Gulf Coast, enabling an increase in oil supply. 

The crude oil inventories release showed an increase of 5.5 million barrels for the week ending September 27. This was higher than the consensus of a 2.3 million increase in the number of barrels, reflecting a downturn in consumption. The total number of crude oil inventories in the US was at 363.7 million barrels that week. 

In US economic news, the government shutdown carried on for its second day in a row as President Obama refused to budge until a good budget deal is struck. 

Meanwhile, US jobs figures reported by the ADP came in weaker than expected, reflecting another downturn in hiring for September. The August figure was revised lower from 176,000 to 159,000 while the September reading came in at 166,000, lower than the 177,000 estimate. 

The U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report that U.S. crude oil inventories rose by 5.5 million barrels in the week ended Sept. 27, missing market expectations for an increase of 2.3 million barrels. 

Total U.S. crude oil inventories stood at 363.7 million barrels as of last week. The report also showed that total motor gasoline inventories increased by 3.5 million barrels, defying expectations for a decline of 640,000 barrels. 

Elsewhere, Brent crude oil futures for November delivery fell 0.12% to USD108.95 per barrel on the ICE Futures Exchange. -

Gold dips on profit-taking


          Gold prices traded lower during Thursday’s Asian session on what appears to be a bout of clear profit-taking after the yellow metal surged Wednesday as the ongoing US government shutdown forced traders to seek safety in the precious metal. 

Weak US economic data also contributed to the commodity’s rallies, as the selloff in the US dollar led to a gold price increase. The two assets are inversely correlated. 

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for December delivery fell 050% to USD1,314.10 per ounce in Asian trading Thursday. The December contract settled higher by 2.69% at USD1,320.70 per ounce on Wednesday. 

Gold futures were likely to find support at USD1,272.10 a troy ounce, the low from Aug. 7, and resistance at USD1,375.10, the high from Sept. 19.

On Capitol Hill, Republicans and Democrats are still butting heads and unable to come up with a budget plan, forcing the US government shutdown to extend to its second day. This caused the US dollar to lose its appeal as a safe-haven investment, pushing traders to flee to more stable assets such as gold. 

In US economic news out Thursday, the ADP employment report showed a weaker than expected reading of 166K, lower than the 177K estimate for September. The August figure suffered a downward revision from 176K to 159K, reflecting a downturn in hiring for the past quarter. 

Weak hiring data and the ongoing US government shutdown led traders to speculate that the Federal Reserve will keep stimulus measures in place for the month and possibly until the end of the year. This contributed to the dollar’s decline as lower returns for the currency are expected, boosting the inversely correlated gold in turn. 

Elsewhere, Comex silver for December delivery dropped 0.79% to USD21.725 per ounce while copper for December deliver fell 0.17% to USD3.309 per ounce. -