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1 Nov 2013

TRICK OR TREAT: Fed Smashes Gold & Silver While 2,000 Gold Eagles Were Sold

       In keeping with the mood of Halloween, the monsters came out early this morning to scare the living Hades out of the gold & silver market.  We had the typical FOMC precious metal smash-down today to balance out the bullish move in gold and silver yesterday instigated by the Fed’s policy of continued QE stimulation.
In a 24 hour period, silver traded more than 5% from highs to lows.  Nothing like a dose of volatility to get investors ready for the Halloween festivities.
While the traders were focused on the “FED TRICK”, in the precious metal markets, few realized the “GOLD TREAT” as the U.S. Mint updated its Gold Eagle figures showing another 2,000 oz of the coins were sold since their update yesterday.
This is an interesting development as the U.S. Mint normally dumps the sales for the last few days of the month on the following month.  In that case, we would have not been able to realize that an additional 2,000 oz of Gold Eagles were sold within the past 24 hour period.
Furthermore, this goes to show that sales for the Gold Eagles are picking up substantially and at this daily rate we could see a much higher sales figure for November compared to the 48,500 oz sold in October.

Precious Metal Investors Better Wake Up

The precious metal sentiment is still at all time lows.  This is partly due to the continued “Fed Taper” calls by Banks & Brokerage Houses.  There is no way the Fed can taper its $85 billion a month of stimulus as the U.S. economy continues to weaken.  However, this doesn’t stop the Banks & Brokerage Houses from doing their part in keeping the Fiat Monetary Regime alive as long as they can.
Investors must realize, when the Fiat Dollar Monetary Regime disintegrates, so do most of the assets that these Banks & Brokerages hold and represent.  Basically, the continued treat of FED TAPER allows monetary authorities open season to smash the precious metals, while they prop up the broader stocks markets and bonds.
This tactic has worked wonders on those who are not invested in the precious metals, but were thinking about it.  Ever since the metals tanked from their highs of $1,750 gold and $35 silver in the fall of 2012, the ignorant public now has lost faith in the precious metals as a store of value.
This is very unfortunate, because the opposite is the case.  In addition, I’ve noticed that even some of the more diehard precious metal investors are starting to question the fundamentals of gold and silver.  All I can say to those who are starting to throw in the towel on the precious metal investments…. the best is still yet to come.

Watch Out For Misleading Analysis on the Gold Miners

I read an article last week titled “GOLD – Mining Profits Fallacy”, written by Adam Hamilton of Zeal Intelligence.  Hamilton states that investors are being misled by some “fool perma-bear’s self-serving falsehoods.”
According to Hamilton’s article:
Chief among them today is the widespread notion that gold miners can’t earn any profits.  I get dozens of e-mails a week explaining to me why the gold stocks are doomed to fall much lower because they simply can’t earn sufficient money where gold is today.  After having spent 14 years studying the markets full-time and trading gold stocks, the sheer popularity of this notion blows my mind.  It is completely and utterly false!
Last year, the HUI gold miners that produce over a third of the world’s mined gold supply averaged $950 per ounce cash profit!  Their gross margins have hovered in the 50% to 60% range continuously since 2006.  There are very few industries in the world that have such high gross margins, the profitability of mining gold has been extraordinary.  And this provides a fortress-like buffer to survive this year’s gold plunge.
In about half the feedback I get parroting these silly bearish rationalizations, the writers cite energy prices.  They tell me gold mining isn’t profitable today because energy is so expensive, and gold mining is usually very energy-intensive.
I am only going to touch base on this today as I will be writing in more detail on this subject in the following weeks.  Hamilton is making the case that the gold miners are still making huge profits due to their low cash costs.  He provides a chart showing huge cash margins that were $950 an ounce in 2012.
While I enjoy Hamilton’s articles, he surely misleads the investing public on this “Huge Gold Cash Profits Crusade.”  Below is a chart I came across from one of those supposed Perma-Bearish gold analysts:

As you can see from the chart, as the index gold price has risen 21% CAGR – compounded annually, EBITDA margins – Earnings before Interest, Tax, Depreciation & Amortization have only increased 8%.  The chart clearly shows that the top gold producers did not take advantage of the much higher gold price.
So, what Perma-Gold Bear put out this chart?  It was Nick Holland, CEO of GoldFields.  Nick spoke to a group at the Melbourne Mining Club back in July 2012 on why the top gold miners have under-performed the market and hurt shareholder value.
From the data that Holland is presenting in this chart, the gold miners profit margins have not been rising along with the gold price as Hamilton suggests.
Again, I will get into this in more detail in the coming weeks.  While Hamilton puts out some excellent work on the precious metals and miners, he is clearly misleading investors that the gold miners are making significant profits at the current low price of gold.
I am not saying that the gold miners aren’t making profits… they just aren’t making huge profits — and actually some are indeed losing money.
News Courtesy :

After “Currency Wars” Comes “The Death of Money”

                      In the winter of 2009, lawyer, investment banker, and advisor on capital markets to the Director of National Intelligence and the Office of the Secretary of Defense, James Rickards took part in a secret war game sponsored by the Pentagon at the Applied Physics Laboratory (APL). The game’s objective was to simulate and explore the potential outcomes and effects of a global financial war. Two years later, Rickards published what would become a national bestseller, Currency Wars: The Making of the Next Global Crisis.
In Currency Wars, Rickards concluded that a dangerous global financial crisis was not only in the making, but that it was inevitable. Based on that financial war game inside a top-secret facility at the APL’s Warfare Analysis Laboratory, a historical analysis of international monetary policy in the twentieth century, as well as his assessment of the events leading to and adopted after the financial debacle of 2008, Rickards laid out the endgame that would result from the global financial chaos of the first currency war of this century; the collapse of the U.S. dollar and the eventual replacement of fiat money with a return to the gold standard.
“The world is getting closer to that end game every day,” warns Rickards, who just finished writing the sequel to Currency Wars, titled The Death of Money, The Coming Collapse of the International Monetary System.
Due out in bookstores next April 2014, The Death of Money picks up on the disturbing predictions outlined in Currency Wars and carries the analysis further into how the international monetary system might collapse and what new system will replace it.
While Currency Wars “looked at global macroeconomics through the lens for foreign exchange rates including periods when exchange rates were pegged to gold and the more recent floating exchange rate period,”Rickards explains, “The Death of Money looks at the global macro economy more broadly considering not just exchange rates and the dollar, but also fiscal policy and the need for structural change in the U.S., China, Japan and Europe.” In addition, Rickards elaborates,“Currency Wars made extensive use of history to develop its main themes about the dollar and gold, The Death of Money relies less on history and more on dynamic analysis.”
Where some see a seemingly calm climate enveloping the global economy and financial markets eagerly embrace the U.S. Federal Reserve System’s zero interest rates and easing monetary policies, Rickards sees the prevalence of patterns that only confirm his forecast for an impending storm.
Rickards expects the Federal Reserve policies aimed at importing inflation into the United States “to offset the deflation that had arisen because of the ongoing depression and deleveraging” to continue well into 2015 and perhaps beyond. He also points to other developments that are aligning in favor of the increasingly demise of confidence in the dollar as the world’s reserve currency: “U.S. fiscal policy, stockpiling of gold by Russia and China, money printing by Japan and the UK, and the rise of regional groups such as the BRICS.”
According to Rickards, the inexorable character of the next global financial storm is essentially due to the fact that “the world is facing structural problems, but is trying to address them with cyclical solutions. A structural problem can only be solved with structural solutions including changes in fiscal policy, labor policy, regulation and the creation of a positive business climate. Monetary solutions of the kind being pursued are not an answer to the structural problems we face. Meanwhile, monetary solutions threaten to undermine confidence in paper money. The combination of unaddressed structural problems and reckless monetary policy will ultimately produce either extreme deflation, borderline hyperinflation, stagflation or a collapse of confidence in the dollar.”

I expect the Mexican economy to outperform the U.S. economy in the years ahead.
So how does the rest of the world currently fare up in Rickards’ analysis? Asked about Mexico, the United States’ second-largest trading partner, he explains:
“The Mexican and U.S. economies are closely linked because of NAFTA and immigration and that will continue to be the case, however, the U.S. will be less important to Mexico in the future and China will become more important. The U.S. should expect increasing inflation in the years ahead because of its reckless monetary policy. Mexico should be able to avoid the inflation because of its energy exports and relatively inexpensive labor. The result will be a gradual strengthening of the Mexican peso against the U.S. dollar, something that has already appeared. Mexico will be a major magnet for Chinese investment also. In short, I expect the Mexican economy to outperform the U.S. economy in the years ahead. Mexico will begin to delink to some extent from the U.S. and to link more closely with the rest of the world, especially Europe and China.”
The euro is the strongest major currency in the world and will be getting stronger.
 Rickards is also bullish on the European Monetary Union, as he underlines that “the euro is the strongest major currency in the world and will be getting stronger.”
Yet some analysts today warn of the euro’s increased appreciation as a dangerous centripetal force to the euro zone’s integrity. Why does Rickards see the opposite?
“Most analysts do not understand the dynamics driving the Euro. They mistakenly assume that if growth is weak, unemployment is high and banks are insolvent that the currency must we weak also. This is not true. The strength of a currency is not driven by the current state of the economy. It is driven by interest rates and capital flows. Right now, Europe has high interest rates compared to the U.S. and Japan and it is receiving huge capital inflows from China.”
Will Germany go all in to preserve the European single currency?
“Germany benefits more from the Euro than any other country because it facilitates the purchase of German exports by its European trading partners. Citizens throughout Europe favor the Euro because it protects them from the devaluations they routinely experienced under their former currencies. No countries will leave the Euro. New members will be added every year. Germany will do whatever it takes to defend the Euro and the European Monetary System. Based on all of these developments, the Euro will get much stronger.”
What about Spain with its increased poverty levels, 2003 per capita income levels, a soon-to-reach 100% debt to GDP ratio and massive unemployment? Isn’t a strong currency the opposite of what the country needs?
“The difficulties Spain has faced for the past five years are part of a necessary structural adjustment to allow Spain to compete more effectively. Most of this adjustment is now complete and Spain is poised for good growth in the years ahead. Unit labor costs have declined more than 20% since 2008, which makes Spanish labor more competitive with the rest of the world. Unemployment is difficult, but it gives Spain a huge pool of untapped labor that is now available as new capital enters the country. Increased labor force participation from among the unemployed will allow the Spanish economy to grow much faster than its overall demographics would suggest. The Euro has given Spain a strong currency, which is extremely attractive to foreign investors. Ford and Peugeot have recently announced major new investments in Spain and more should be expected. Chinese capital is also eager to invest in Spanish infrastructure. Spain has successfully made structural adjustments and put its major problems behind it, unlike the United States where the structural problems have not been addressed and painful economic adjustments are yet to come.”

Agencies such as the Defense Department and the intelligence community are concerned about the future stability of the dollar.

Given the national security aspect to Rickards’ work and the mere threat on the dollar’s future stability, one would expect for the defense and intelligence community in the U.S. to pressure policy makers into taking action. Not the case, says Rickards:
“Various government agencies and private think tanks and corporations have continued to do war game type simulations of financial warfare and attacks on capital markets systems since the Pentagon financial war game in 2009. I have been an advisor to and a participant in many of these subsequent efforts. However, these national security community and private simulations have had very little impact on policy as pursued by the U.S. Treasury and the Federal Reserve. Agencies such as the Defense Department and the intelligence community are concerned about the future stability of the dollar, but the U.S. Treasury is far less concerned. This has created some tension between those who see the danger and cannot do much about it, and those who can affect dollar policy but do not see the danger.”
Ultimately, however, Rickards argues that if his predictions come true (and in his opinion it is only a matter of time), the collapse of the dollar would lead to a reset in the world’s monetary system whereby gold would regain its historic role as the standard unit of value. What happens after the end of fiat money would then depend on how each country is positioned in terms of its gold reserves.
Can the point of no return in the path to the death of money be averted?
“The point of no return may already have passed,” says Rickards, “but the consequences have not yet played out.”
In Rickards’ view, it’s a catch-22 situation from this point forward: “the Fed has painted itself into a corner. If they withdraw policy and reduce asset purchases, the economy will go into a recession with deflationary consequences. If the Fed does not withdraw policy, they will eventually undermine confidence in the dollar. Both outcomes are bad, but there are no good choices. This is the fruit of fifteen years of market manipulation by the Fed beginning with the Russian – LTCM crisis in 1998. The Fed will cause either deflation or inflation, but it cannot produce stable real economic growth.”
 Courtesy :

Crude oil trades slightly lower as risk appetite wanes

            Crude Oil futrures traded slightly lower during Friday’s Asian session as traders approached riskier assets with caution. 

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for December delivery inched down 0.05% to USD96.33 per barrel in Asian trading Friday. The December contract settled down 0.40% at USD96.38 per barrel on Thursday. 

Inventories data weighted on crude Thursday, but the declines were mitigated somewhat by some decent U.S. economic data. 

In U.S. economic news out Thursday, the Chicago manufacturing purchasing managers’ index jumped to 65.9 in October from 55.7 in September. Analysts had expected the index to decline to 55.0.

The new orders component of the index jumped to a nine-year high of 74.3 from 58.9 in September. 

Meanwhile, the Department of Labor said the number of individuals filing for initial jobless benefits in the week ending October 25 declined by 10,000 to a seasonally adjusted 340,000, in line with market expectations. The U.S. is the world’s largest oil consumer. 

While West Texas Intermediate prices struggle, Brent prices have been boosted because of ongoing supply disruptions in Libya. The OPEC member and home to Africa’s largest oil reserves is only pumping at a mere fraction of its daily capacity, in turn cutting supplies to Europe. 

Meanwhile, the official reading of China’s October purchasing manager’s index came in at 51.4, beating estimates. China is the world’s second-largest oil consumer. 

Elsewhere, Brent futures for December delivery inched up 0.04% to USD108.97 per barrel on the ICE Futures Exchange. -

Natural gas prices dip as market digests bearish U.S. supply report

           Natural gas prices fell on Thursday after official U.S. data revealed that supplies rose more than expected last week.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, natural gas futures for delivery in December traded at USD3.589 per million British thermal units during U.S. trading, down 0.87%. 

The commodity hit a session low of USD3.564 and a high of USD3.659.

The December contract settled down 0.25% at USD3.620 per million British thermal units on Wednesday.

Futures were likely to find support at USD3.557 per million British thermal units, the low from Oct. 24, and resistance at USD3.869, the high from Oct. 16.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report that natural gas storage in the U.S. in the week ended Oct. 25 rose by 38 billion cubic feet, higher than forecasts for an increase of 36 billion cubic feet.

Inventories rose by 66 billion cubic feet in the same week a year earlier, while the five-year average change for the week is a build of 57 billion cubic feet.

Total U.S. natural gas storage stood at 3.779 trillion cubic feet. Stocks were 120 billion cubic feet less than last year at this time and 58 billion cubic feet above the five-year average of 3.721 trillion cubic feet for this time of year.

The report showed that in the East Region, stocks were 91 billion cubic feet below the five-year average, following net injections of 17 billion cubic feet. 

Stocks in the Producing Region were 102 billion cubic feet above the five-year average of 1.161 billion cubic feet after a net injection of 18 billion cubic feet.

Prices continued to come under pressure after updated weather-forecasting models called for mild temperatures to hover in place of the central and eastern U.S. for the next 10 days.

Milder temperatures cut into the need for heating or air conditioning this time of year, lowering demand for natural gas at the nation's thermal power generators.

Elsewhere on the NYMEX, light sweet crude oil futures for delivery in December were down 0.47% and trading at USD96.32 a barrel, while heating oil for December delivery were down 0.80% and trading at USD2.9529 per gallon.

Gold continues lower following Thursday tumble

            Gold futures traded slight in the early part of Friday’s Asian session as traders refused bargain hunting with the yellow metal following dismal showing Thursday. 

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for December delivery fell 0.07% to USD1,322.80 per troy ounce in Asian trading Friday. The December contract settled lower by 1.90% percent at USD1,323.70 per ounce on Thursday. 

Gold futures were likely to find support at USD1,310.10 a troy ounce, the low from Oct. 22, and resistance at USD1,361.70, Monday's high.

Gold was dinged Thursday by some decent U.S. data that had traders, once again, pondering the fate of the Federal Reserve’s USD85 billion-per-month quantitative easing effort. 

In U.S. economic news out Thursday, the Chicago manufacturing purchasing managers’ index jumped to 65.9 in October from 55.7 in September. Analysts had expected the index to decline to 55.0.

The new orders component of the index jumped to a nine-year high of 74.3 from 58.9 in September. 

Meanwhile, the Department of Labor said the number of individuals filing for initial jobless benefits in the week ending October 25 declined by 10,000 to a seasonally adjusted 340,000, in line with market expectations. 

Gold traded slightly higher for the month of October, no small feat when considering October is usually one of the worst months of the year in which to be long gold. Gold bugs could see seasonality turn in their favor because November is one of the best months to be long bullion. 

Elsewhere, Comex silver for December delivery rose 0.32% to USD21.938 per ounce while copper for December delivery fell 0.06% to USD3.298 an ounce.  -